Beef Cattle Cycle in the State of Pará, Amazon, Brazil

Abstract

The production and price behavior of the beef cattle market in the state of Pará, Brazilian Amazon, was evaluated with the objective of characterizing the dynamics of the market and guiding economic decisions made by agents in the beef cattle production chain. Time series of production and prices from the period 1995 to 2021 were analyzed using growth rates and the classical multiplicative method of time series. The cattle herd in Pará showed a growth rate of 4.54% per year from 1995 to 2021, and the slaughter of bovine females fluctuated throughout the historical series with the highest and lowest percentages in the years 2000 and 2011, respectively. There were three complete livestock cycles, differing in duration and amplitude. The average duration of the cycles was 7 years, with a shortening of the cycle over the period of study. Seasonal price indices are higher than 100, which is the annual average index, from September to January and lower than 100 from February to August. The highest price quotations for the arroba of fattened cattle coincide with the off-season period of beef cattle production, which is determined by the carrying capacity of pastures under the influence of weather conditions.