Overconfidence in Managerial Decision-Making among Brazilian Accountants and Managers: An Experimental Study

Abstract

The aim of this work is to analyze, by means of an experiment, if the type (positive or negative) and the level (simple or complex) of financial information influence of overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants in a managerial decision-making process. The design consists of a 2 x 2 factorial experiment, with four treatments, with the type and level of accounting information as experimental factors. The research was applied to a sample of 68 managers, 86 accountants, and 118 people with different activities (control group). The results showed that the majority of participants present the Overconfidence bias, in the first test, without differentiation of information. They also presented significant evidence that overconfidence can be influenced by the type of information, but not by its level. Moreover, the analysis suggested that the profile of the participants influences the confidence in the projections conducted. The research has shown that the type of financial information influences the overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants.