Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v11i2.18542Abstract
This study uses the Butterworth filter to decompose cyclical signals at low and high frequencies in the production data of the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors. At low frequencies, the production trend exhibits considerable differences among industrial activities while most of the sub-sectors are more sensitive to common cycle than their own dynamics at high frequencies. Moreover, it is predicted that changes in the manufacture of basic metals sub-sector production can be used as a leading indicator for the expansion and contraction periods of the common cycle estimated for the manufacturing industry.